Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,739,879$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,607,134.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 66.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,607,134.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $128,740$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,864.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.4)}}\) (asimptote \(121,864.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,829,169$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $106,643$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,257.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.6)}}\) (asimptote \(104,257.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,700$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,553.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,553.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,071$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,511$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{346,962.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 93.1)}}\) (asimptote \(346,962.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,189$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(797 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,226.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 85.2)}}\) (asimptote \(43,226.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,565$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,237$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{411,574.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 190.5)}}\) (asimptote \(411,574.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $667$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(48.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{882.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 92.7)}}\) (asimptote \(882.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,125$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $34,197$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,109.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 93.5)}}\) (asimptote \(48,109.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $765$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(121 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{756.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(756.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,291$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,120$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(152 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $591$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(24.4 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,930.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 125.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,930.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,339$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $20,072$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(180 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,737.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 96.6)}}\) (asimptote \(31,737.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $843$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.67 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,127.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 79.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,127.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,950$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,000$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(173 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,821.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 99.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,821.5\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $191$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.42 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,694$ on 2020-07-02
